Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
